The Latino Communities of Santa Barbara County
According to the 2010 Census, the population of California, estimated for 2011, was 37,691,912. The percentage of foreign born is given as 27.2% and the percentage of Latinos at 38.1%.
For Santa Barbara County, the 2011 estimated population was 426,878, and the percentage of foreign born is 27.2% and percentage of Latinos is 43.4%. Since compared with the rest of the state, Santa Barbara County has fewer Asian immigrants, the best guide to estimating the number of undocumented immigrants is the percentage of Latinos, not the percentage of foreign-born.
The “excess: percentage of Latinos in Santa Barbara County, compared to the entire state percentage is 43.4/38.1 – 1 = 27% more than the state-wide percentage.
The Pew Center for Hispanic Studies estimates a California undocumented
population of 2,550,000(2011). The DHS estimate of 2,570,000 is similar. Using the lower estimate from the Pew Center, we estimate that undocumented immigrants represent 2,550,000/37,691,912 or 6.8%
of the total population of California. Applying this to the Santa Barbara County population gives .068 X 426,878 or 28,880 undocumented Latinos, before applying the correction factor (27% more Latinos in Santa Barbara County than predicted by the state percentage). Applying the correction factor of + 27%, we get 1.27 X 28,880 or 36,677 undocumented immigrants in Santa Barbara County in 2011.
How Many Young People in Santa Barbara County are Eligible for DACA?
The national estimate for undocumented immigrants according to the Pew
Center is 11,200,000 (2011). The Santa Barbara County undocumented population estimate just arrived at, estimate applied to the national estimate yields a percentage of the total of 36,677/11,200,000 or 0.3275 %.
It is estimated by DHS 1.04 million undocumented immigrants will file for DACA in the first year. The Pew Foundation estimates that 1.7 million could be covered. Applying these two estimates to the Santa Barbara County population, yields 0.003275 X 1,040,000 = 3,406 (first year applications) and 0.003275 X 1,700,000 = 5,568 (total eligible).
DHS estimates that of the anticipated 1.04 million first year applications, 890,000 will be immediately eligible, which is 86%. Applied to the Santa Barbara County estimate, this means that .86 X 3,406 = 2,929 are estimated to have easy cases for approval.
All of these estimates are a lower bound, because all the known errors favor underestimation. First, undocumented immigrants are
known to be substantially undercounted by the census. In addition, the estimate that 0.03275% of the undocumented immigrants in the United States in 2011 resided in Santa Barbara County is low because the percentage is calculated by dividing a census-based projection (36,677) by a non-census based estimate of the total number of undocumented persons in the U.S. This lowers the percentage since non-census based estimates already apply corrections for undercounting.
How Many Residents are Non-Citizens?
The Census estimates (2011) that 27.2% of the population of Santa Barbara County is foreign born, or 116,111 persons. Of the foreign-born, it is estimated that only 34% are citizens. This means that 66% or .66 X 116,111 = 76,633 are either undocumented or Green Card holders. Of the 76,333, our previous estimate is that 36,677 are undocumented. This
means that approximately half non-citizen immigrants (48%) are undocumented and approximately half have green cards.